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18 April 2024, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #811
By Rosemary Kurian
CROATIA
Parliamentary elections: Plenkovic’s ruling HDZ party wins
On 17 April, Deutsche Welle reported on the win of Andrej Plenkovic of the conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) won the parliamentary elections with 60 seats, but did not claim a majority in the 151-seat assembly. This would follow potentially tough coalition negotiations by Plenkovic to form a majority. If neither party forms a government within sixty days, it would prompt new elections. According to The Morung Express, Croatia’s parliamentary elections will be a face off between President Zoran Milanovic of the Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP), a pro-Russian leader and Plenkovic’s ruling HDZ. Milanovic has created an image as a right-wing populist leader who made a surprise announcement of his intention to contest a month before the election. Croatia’s elections were due this autumn, but observers believe that due to Plenkovic’s narrow backing in the Parliament, he wanted a snap election to avoid the threat of further drop in popularity. According to the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, Milanovic scheduled surprise elections to make voting difficult for those Croats living in the neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina, who are traditionally conservative and supporters of Plenkovic’s HDZ, to “break the supremacy of the HDZ.” The HDZ has been in power for almost 10 years and is known to be susceptible to corruption. Even Plenkovic, who had donned a “spotless vest” so far, made blunders by electing an Attorney General with links to criminals. (“Croatia's parliamentary elections: Milanovic and Plenkovic face-off,” The Morung Express, 17 April 2024; Dusan Dinic, “King Kong vs. Godzilla – the Croatian way,” Friedrich Naumann Foundation, 16 April 2024; “Croatia: Ruling conservatives win elections without majority,” Deutsche Welle, 18 April 2024)
FINLAND
Government announces steps to decrease deficit with the EU
On 17 April, according to the Helsinki Times, the Finnish government announced the ruling coalition’s agreement to a government spending cut worth EUR 1.6 billion and tax increases worth EUR 1.4 billion. After a two-day framework session convened to discuss means to avoid triggering the excessive deficit procedure of the EU, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s government made the announcement, calling them “necessary.” They have decided to increase the general value added tax by 1.5 per cent to 25.5 percent, which could lead to an inflation on several products and services, a step that could be implemented as soon as this year, according to Rikka Purra, Finland’s Minister of Finance. (“Finnish government unveils €1.6bn in new spending cuts, €1.4bn in new tax hikes,” Helsinki Times, 17 April 2024)
Helsinki to host Tall Ships Races while promoting Baltic Sea preservation
On 16 April, according to the Helsinki Times, Finland will host its annual Tall Ships Races, a sailing event featuring large traditional sailing vessels, from 04 to 07 July in the capital city of Helsinki. The event that takes place in the Baltic Sea will partner with the John Nurminen Foundation, an organisation focussed on the preservation of the Baltic Sea, as its charity partner. The event will attract around 500,000 visitors to the city, and will promote fundraising for the protection of the Baltic Sea for visiting businesses. Annamari Arrakoski-Engardt, CEO of the John Nurminen Foundation, noted that the “Baltic Sea suffers from eutrophication,” which they aim to prevent through donations. (“Helsinki to host the Tall Ships Races in July 2024 with a focus on Baltic Sea conservation,” Helsinki Times, 16 April 2024)
Finland observes increased rates of elder employment, especially among women
On 16 April, according to the Helsinki Times, Finland improved its rate of elder employment, especially among women. Being historically behind fellow Nordic states in elder employment, Anna Sutela, a senior researcher at the Statistics Centre, observed that recent years have showcased significant progress, especially among women aged 50-59, with a less favourable situation for men. Sutela noted that the possible reasons for the improvement could include “…reforms in the pension system, workplace development programs, the education system, something else, or all of these combined.” (“Finland catches up in elder employment, especially among women,” Helsinki Times, 16 April 2024)
RUSSIA
Announces to withdraw its forces from Nagorno-Karabakh
On 17 April, according to Politico, Russia announced a complete withdrawal of its forces from Nagorno-Karabakh, directing all its resources to fight its war on Ukraine. After six months of an Armenian forced exodus from Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region, the Russian announcement was made, as confirmed by Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin Press Secretary. Russia stationed 1960 soldiers with hundreds of units of armoured personnel and military equipment to monitor the 2020 ceasefire between the two countries, due to a war that followed the fall of the USSR. Russian forces did not act when Azerbaijan launched its attack against Armenians in the unrecognised republic, causing a major humanitarian crisis and forced fleeing of Armenians. This growing rift between Armenia and Russia has prompted the former to push for a closer integration with the EU. (Gabriel Gavin, “Russia announces total withdrawal of troops from Nagorno-Karabakh,” Politico, 17 April 2024)
Russia’s ‘meat grinder’ strategy is increasingly killing its soldiers
On 17 April, according to the BBC, more than 50,000 Russian soldiers were killed in the war on Ukraine. The death toll increased by at least 25 per cent after Russia initiated its ‘meat grinder’ strategy in the war’s second year, sending waves of soldiers to overwhelm Ukrainian forces and expose their defences. BBC recorded death toll is eight times higher than Russia’s public acknowledgment of the same, last made in September 2022. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, stated that giving such data was the “exclusive prerogative of the Ministry of Defence.” The numbers do not include the militants in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). Prison recruits are key in Russia’s meat grinder tactics, like prison inmates who fought on behalf of the Russian government as part of the Wagner group’s private army, which recruited from prisons until the souring of relations with Kremlin. (Olga Ivshina, Becky Dale & Kirstie Brewer, “Russia's meat grinder soldiers - 50,000 confirmed dead”, BBC, 17 April 2024)
REGIONAL
EU Summit commences with discussions on Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel conflicts
On 17 April, according to Deutsche Welle, the 27 EU leaders attending the EU Summit in Brussels discussed the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, and the Iran-Israel tensions as part of Israel’s war against Hamas. Originally meant to discuss the state of economic competitiveness in Europe, the two-day summit will urge “all parties (in the Middle East) to exercise utmost restraint.” Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, stated that the EU would consider furthering sanctions against, with French President Emmanuel Macron adding that the bloc’s “duty is to expand these sanctions,” particularly targeting entities involved in drone and missile production. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President, will join the summit through video conference primarily to urge his European partners to provide the required air defence systems against Russian attacks. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President, stated that the bloc was facing threats from a “new league of authoritarians” for which they must take the “next leap forward” on “defence and security.” (“EU summit updates: Leaders to discuss Middle East, Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 17 April 2024)